Former President Donald Trump’s lead in the presidential race narrowed considerably in the latest HarrisX/Forbes survey released Friday, showing his advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris at two points—much less than the eight-point lead he had last week over President Biden, who dropped out and made Harris his presumptive replacement.
The HarrisX/Forbes online poll of over 3,000 registered voters (margin of error +/- 1.8) finds Harris trailing behind Trump 45% to 47% (9% undecided), though when including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead narrows to one point, with Harris trailing 42% to 43% behind Trump, and Kennedy securing 9% of the vote (6% undecided).
Among the 689 respondents who identify as political independents, Trump leads 42%-40%, while Harris maintains a significant lead in such key demographics as suburban women (52%-40%), African-American men (57%-30%), African-American women (77%-13%), and white respondents with a college degree (49%-46%).
The poll was conducted between Monday—the day after Biden ended his re-election campaign following mounting concerns from within his own party over his advanced age and mental acuity—and Wednesday.
- It’s an upswing for Democrats, after a HarrisX/Forbes poll last week (July 19-July 21) showed Trump leading Biden 48%-40% (12% undecided)—Trump led Biden 43%-34% when Kennedy (14%) was included (8% undecided).
- When asked if respondents have a favorable view on Harris, 44% said yes, compared to 44% who had a favorable view of Trump, 39% for Biden, 36% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 34% for Trump running mate JD Vance.
- Asked who they would have voted for before Biden dropped out of the race, only 36% said they would have voted for Biden compared to 43% for Trump. Most voters supported Biden’s decision to step down, with 73% saying Biden “listened to voters” by dropping out.
- Just under one-quarter of respondents identified as liberal, with 38% identifying as conservative and 38% calling themselves moderates, 46% said they voted for Trump in the 2020 election, and 51% said they voted for Biden.